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GeoStressLayer 03

Critical inputs cascade — production-chain chokepoints when sovereign and trade channels miss the surprise.
v0.2 / cascade engine
Data cutoff: 19 May 2026
Sources: USGS MCS, WB CMO Apr-26
18 inputs · 10 triggers · 47 downstream goods · cross-indexed against WB CMO baseline

What this is

A cascade engine for Layer 03 of GeoStress — supply-chain chokepoints that operate on input → production process → downstream good chains, distinct from the sovereign / trade / financial channels in Layers 01–02.

Built to surface inputs that don't appear on standard risk registers: byproducts, two-country processing chains, transport-constrained gases, and 90%+ single-country concentrations.

Data quality legend

  • A Sourced from USGS MCS, IEA, or EU CRM directly
  • B Cross-referenced from two or more industry/trade sources
  • C Single industry source — needs verification
  • SF = Surprise factor, 0–10. High values flag inputs that don't appear on standard registers.

Known gaps

14 of 18 inputs have no time-staged shock scenario yet — cascades shown derive from concentration plus substitutability where present.

Downstream-good labels in the source JSON are partly inconsistent ("lithium_batteries" vs "EV_charging") — being unified in the next pass.

No critical-mineral price index in WB CMO; price linkages shown only for energy, fertilizers, base metals.